The Season Ends

If you're looking for bitterness, disappointment, or second-guessing, you won't find it here. I have nothing but pride for the Dodgers, who even broke against baseball norms and congratulated the St. Louis Cardinals after their elimination. What class.

As for the rest of the playoffs, I think that the Red Birds will reach the World Series. I also think that the Boston Red Sox will redeem themselves and earn the chance to break the curse. But then....

National League: Cardinals over Houston/Atlanta in 5 games
American League: Red Sox over New York in 7 games
World Series: Cardinals over Red Sox in six games

Who Was Dr. Strangelove?

Stanley Kubrick's brilliant satire, which ranks among my all-time favorite films, celebrates its 40th anniversary this year. Accordingly, Fred Kaplan discusses its political insights, including the inspiration for the title character:

[T]he real model was almost certainly Herman Kahn, an eccentric, voluble nuclear strategist at the RAND Corporation, a prominent Air Force think tank. In 1960, Mr. Kahn published a 652-page tome called "On Thermonuclear War," which sold 30,000 copies in hardcover.

According to a special-feature documentary on the new DVD, Mr. Kubrick read "On Thermonuclear War" several times. But what the documentary doesn't note is that the final scenes of "Dr. Strangelove" come straight out of its pages.

Toward the end of the film, officials uncover General Ripper's code and call back the B-52's, but they notice that one bomber keeps flying toward its target. A B-52 is about to attack the Russians with a few H-bombs; General Turgidson recommends that we should "catch 'em with their pants down," and launch an all-out, disarming first-strike.

Such a strike would destroy 90 percent of the U.S.S.R.'s nuclear arsenal. "Mr. President," he exclaims, "I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but I do say no more than 10-20 million killed, tops!" If we don't go all-out, the general warns, the Soviets will fire back with all their nuclear weapons. The choice, he screams, is "between two admittedly regrettable but nevertheless distinguishable postwar environments -- one where you get 20 million people killed and the other where you get 150 million people killed!" Mr. Kahn made precisely this point in his book, even producing a chart labeled, "Tragic but Distinguishable Postwar States."

When Dr. Strangelove talks of sheltering people in mineshafts, President Muffley asks him, "Wouldn't this nucleus of survivors be so grief-stricken and anguished that they'd, well, envy the dead?" Strangelove exclaims that, to the contrary, many would feel "a spirit of bold curiosity for the adventure ahead."

Mr. Kahn's book contains a long chapter on mineshafts. Its title: "Will the Survivors Envy the Dead?" One sentence reads: "We can imagine a renewed vigor among the population with a zealous, almost religious dedication to reconstruction."

In 1981, two years before he died, I asked Mr. Kahn what he thought of "Dr. Strangelove." Thinking I meant the character, he replied, with a straight face, "Strangelove wouldn't have lasted three weeks in the Pentagon. He was too creative."

In addition, Strangelove is affiliated with the "Bland Corporation" -- a clear reference to RAND. On the other hand, Bruce Gottlieb and Dan Lindley have solid evidence suggesting that the character is a mix of Kahn, Henry Kissinger, Wernher Von Braun, and even Edward Teller.

On a more timely note, the film plays a minor role in the current election: it's John Edwards's choice for the Turner Classic Movies series on party politics. Slate explains the significance:

Slim Pickens, playing a bellicose Texan Air Force pilot, yodels with glee as he rides a "nucular" missile to his death, initiating worldwide Armageddon. Essentially, Strangelove is the story of a few deluded powermongers who destroy the world because they can't admit they're wrong. Edwards was bashful about drawing parallels, but host Ben Mankiewicz finally baited the hook for him: "Is there any message you would like President Bush or Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist to get from this movie?" Edwards' answer, delivered in his usual courtly drawl, was a quiet little knife in the president's ribs: "Human beings are fallible. They make mistakes ... That's why it's so important to have somebody at the top of the civilian government who understands what's happening and has good sound judgment."

Well, needless to say, Edwards is far from an unbiased source. But, if you're sympathetic to his views, you can always highlight this quotation:

Herman Kahn was a giant. He boldly confronted public issues with creativity and the conviction, in his case correct, that thought and analysis could help make ours a better world.

So said Donald Rumsfeld.

Shawn Green's Return?

With last night's power surge, the Dodger slugger tallied his 20th and 21st homers in 286 post-All-Star-Break at-bats. That amounts to approximately one jack per 14 AB, which is identical to his 2002 rate, when he posted a total of 42 HR. Since August, his monthly HR totals have been 8, 6, and (thus far) 3. They're much more reflective of his career performance than the 2 compiled in June.

Do these numbers suggest that the old Green is back? Can we, for instance, expect similar play to resume next April? It's too early to tell. I personally wouldn't hold my breath for it. But, hey, we'll enjoy it as much as we can this postseason.

Did Jose Lima Pitch the Game of His Life?

Well, you can argue that he fell a few points short. On June 6, 1998, he threw a shutout against the Kansas City Royals, allowing only five hits and one walk while compiling seven strikeouts. He earned a game score of 83. Earlier this evening, in the only other shutout of his career, he also allowed five hits and one walk but struck out only four. His game score totaled 80.

But that Royals club had just 72 wins, 714 runs, .720 OPS, and one slugger with at least 30 homers; this Cardinals team had 105 wins, 855 runs, .804 OPS, and three sluggers with at least 30 homers. That was a regular-season game against a cellar dweller; this was a season-saving victory against a playoff favorite. That was a routine interleague matchup; this was the first postseason franchise win since the 1988 World Series.

So, to answer the question: hell yes Lima had the defining moment of his career. Unless, of course, the Dodgers advance and he pitches another gem....

UPDATE: Jon Weisman attended the game. Filled with envy am I.

Afghanistan Votes

That fifteen presidential candidates declared the historic election illegitimate is certainly a serious concern. After all, if Afghans become disillusioned with the voting system, democracy will crumble before its foundation is even laid. So we should rigorously investigate the complaints.

But, at the same time, we must recognize that today's events were tremendously successful. For months, international observers worried about significant terrorist disruption. Yet, as the Washington Post reports:

An unprecedented deployment of nearly 100,000 Afghan and foreign security forces, who sealed off all major roads and guarded most polling centers, appeared to have staved off any major anti-election attacks.

Police said they discovered a fuel tanker truck carrying landmines and explosives in the southern city of Kandahar, and arrested three Pakistanis in it. They said the volatile cargo could have been detonated in the city, causing election-day mayhem. Interior Ministry officials said they found explosives or other dangerous items in cars throughout the capital, and arrested a group of Taliban members who were holding a clandestine meeting.

Scattered violence -- restricted to distant provinces -- was the exception, not the rule. In general, the atmosphere seemed conducive to voting. Note these dispatches from BBC correspondents stationed throughout the country:

[W]hat has been most remarkable is the large scale participation of women. In the northern Balkh province, women came out in their bridal finery -- with beads around their necks and henna on their hands -- to vote.

In Kabul, at the end of the day, emotional women told the BBC that it had been the most memorable day in their lives. Some of them were in tears.

[...]

Voting was very good in Shibergan with large numbers of people turning out to vote. There was tight security and in general the day was very peaceful.

[...]

A few here [in Mazar-e-Sharif] complained about voting irregularities, but on the whole the mood has been very positive and cheerful.

If Hamid Karzai's rivals reject the election now, the thousands of men and women who voted for them will be bitterly disappointed.

[...]

Voting has ended here in Herat and while there was some disappointment about the use of washable ink to mark voters' hands, the majority of Afghans have been content with the process.

[...]

And the mood here wasn't tarnished by the problem with the ink. It was a celebration today. There was a tremendous buzz of excitement at the polling stations.

I genuinely got the feeling that this was the people's opportunity and that's why in Kandahar the problem with the ink is being laughed out of town.

People here believe that it was no massive fraud but either incompetence or confusion.

Read the entire feature, as well as this Instapundit post.

Procedural details matter, but general conditions are more important right now. You can always improve ballot technologies to encourage higher turnout, but you only get one chance to establish precedent and assure inexperienced voters that they can safely exercise their rights. In this light, Afghans -- and the international community -- should feel encouraged. Lyse Doucet has the most appropriate conclusion: "This was an election which was supposed to have been undone by international terrorism. Yet it's all come down to a pot of ink."

The Townhall Debate

The President is typically outstanding in this format, and he excelled yet again tonight. John Kerry stayed close. Indeed, he even seemed more personable than his opponent at certain moments, especially as he remembered questioners' names, including the irrepressible "Nicky." But Bush's plain-spoken style just helped him convey his message better than Kerry's detail-oriented style did. And, with television debates, that's what usually matters.

Talking heads have noted how Bush interrupted Charles Gibson on one occasion. Frankly, I doubt that this minor incident will hurt the President, mainly because it concerned the recognition of allies. Bush appeared genuinely upset with Kerry's purported disrespect for Great Britain, Italy, Poland, and others. He turned the foreign-policy issue into an etiquette matter: good people don't frown upon their friends' contributions. The analogy isn't necessarily correct, but voters will, I think, understand the sentiment and hence forgive the interruption.

The Vice-Presidential Debate

Andrew Sullivan thinks that Dick Cheney will "crush" John Edwards. Jack Pitney, who once worked for Cheney, notes that Edwards has a few significant advantages. I have no predictions myself. I do believe, however, that we're set for a very heated showdown. Not only will the tightness of the election raise the stakes, but Cheney will be under strict orders to save Bush from last week's debacle and reclaim momentum. For his part, Edwards will be motivated to show that he actually exists -- that he actually contributes to the campaign.

Republicans are in a tricky spot. They must now rely heavily on a polarizing figure whom they've tried hard to keep out of the spotlight. Indeed, it might be a curse in disguise if Cheney wins. Why? A victory would make him -- and, by extension, the campaign -- an even bigger target, and Democrats would likely seize the opportunity to blast his statements on Iraq and Al Qaeda. Then again, Republicans could use some good news, whatever the associated disadvantages.

UPDATE: It was a tie. Cheney, however, unleashed the best line when he mentioned that he had only met Edwards earlier in the evening -- a swipe at the senator's poor attendance record.

I doubt that poll numbers will significantly change, since vice-presidential debates seldom attract considerable attention. On the other hand, Cheney had a decent enough performance to prevent further Republican slides. Yet one concern remains: the next presidential debate is scheduled for Friday, when viewership is bound to be relatively low. This timetable hurts Bush, who'd likely want to redeem himself before as large an audience as possible.

UPDATE II: James Joyner, Stephen Green, Kevin Drum, David Adesnik, and Steven Taylor have instant analyses.

Their Own Petard

I attended Ralph Nader's address last night at the Kennedy School, where a sizable number of Kerry supporters predictably jeered, mocked, and grilled the independent presidential candidate. But, to his credit, Nader handled the crowd. Indeed, he surgically picked apart precocious undergraduates who were foolish enough to confront a seasoned activist.

The first interlocutor, for instance, accused Nader of having blood on his hands: because Al Gore, who opposes the Iraq War, should have won in 2000, Nader is responsible for the 1,000+ military casualties. It was an audacious claim, marked with ridiculous, far-fetched assumptions. Undaunted, Nader threw hypothetical formulations right back at the student. What if Republicans hadn't disenfranchised minority voters? What if Gore had won his home state? What if he hadn't tried to "mimic wood" during the presidential debates? These and other responses were prefaced by what, in hindsight, seemed like a taunt: "I couldn't have asked for a better question."

Another reckless soul mounted a challenge on conservation policy. This student noted that he had examined the Democratic energy proposal alongside that of the third party, and concluded that the latter was unsound. As Nader replied, the student muttered that the response was factually incorrect. A heated exchange ensued. Finally, Nader laid down the gauntlet by issuing a simple challenge: name the five renewable energy sources. The student could only list three.

On an even more amusing note, a sympathetic Democrat said that, while he had no problems with independents, he thought Nader was simply out to sabotage Kerry. In particular, he had problems with Nader's concentration on the battleground. Why does the campaign cause trouble in Florida and Ohio and avoid uncontested states like Massachusetts altogether? Nader answered that he was happy to be in Cambridge.

Seriously, I understand the anger that Democrats feel towards him. He isn't entirely altruistic, after all; throughout the talk, I sensed some of his arrogance, selfishness, and hunger for publicity.

But just because Nader has a big ego doesn't mean that he's devoid of a message. In fact, I think that his two-pronged challenge is highly relevant:

• What demands are rank-and-file Democrats making of Kerry, whom they want to win so badly that they're willing to accept, among other things, his stance on the war?

• As the Democratic Party moves toward the center, where do principled liberals draw the line?

I've actually posed similar questions in the past. After the Republican National Convention, for example, I wondered when Democrats would try to recapture the mantle of Harry Truman and make democracy promotion a central pillar of their foreign-policy agenda. I continue to wait for a response.

"The Hollywood Way"

It's the only appropriate description: seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning, capped by a grand slam against the San Francisco Giants to win the division title. Oh, how I wish I could have seen it! But, in listening to the online broadcast 3,000 miles away, perhaps I can appreciate the championship all the more.

Because Steve Finley provided the memorable hit, skeptics may finally begin to forgive Paul DePodesta for trading away the club's "heart and soul." Note one thing, however: the comeback included three walks (even though Dustin Hermanson threw first-pitch strikes to four of the five hitters whom he faced). The combination of patience and power affixed the Moneyball seal on the game and the season. The path to victory made me just as happy as the victory itself.

UPDATE: Freeway Series? The Anaheim Angels clinched their division, too -- against their own Bay-Area rivals.

Awfully Busy

I apologize for my neglect. Academic demands are extremely high right now, and they've even forced me to consider whether I should close this site. I like blogging too much to let it go altogether. But, unless I find a collaborator or make some other kind of arrangement, I fear that this option will remain live.

In any event, the Dodgers are on the verge of clinching their division, so all is well. As for last night's debate, I think that John Kerry creamed George W. Bush. Indeed, Bush probably did more to make Kerry seem presidential than anything else has in this campaign.